Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 479 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:20 → LAX 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1578 BOS 17:33 → LAX 20:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	LAX 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 06:21	LAX 09:35	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2004 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LAX 14:03	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 659 United	BOS 11:45	LAX 15:08	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	15%	3%	1.0%	87%
B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	17%	3%	0.6%	85%
B6 687 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:40	LAX 10:50	20%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:53	LAX 14:14	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 318 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:25	LAX 19:44	22%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 321 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:30	LAX 23:51	22%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 1277 American Flight history →	BOS 10:30	LAX 13:45	23%	5%	1.0%	83%
B6 1487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LAX 14:09	25%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 639 United Flight history →	BOS 18:27	LAX 21:52	27%	8%	0.6%	67%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	BOS 19:35	LAX 22:58	33%	9%	1.0%	46%
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:25	LAX 23:39	35%	13%	0.7%	69%
B6 487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:55	LAX 19:06	36%	9%	0.7%	75%worse than usual
B6 1387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:42	LAX 21:00	37%	13%	0.6%	65%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 15:53	LAX 19:15	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	37%	9%	0.9%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	98%	89%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 47m Dulles	IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868	8h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:21DL 499	2h 08m Denver	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	9h 11m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON