Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 675 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 675 BOS 06:10 → MCI 08:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1030 BOS 14:45 → MCI 17:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 675 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:10	MCI 08:41	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 743 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 14:20	MCI 16:40	30%	8%	0.5%	55%
DL 314 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:10	MCI 18:48	31%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 1030 Southwest	BOS 14:45	MCI 17:25	33%	8%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BOS 05:25 → MDW 07:00WN 3239	50m Chicago	MDW 07:50 → MCI 09:23WN 2912	4h 58m	90%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON