Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1580 at 07:05, 14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 BOS 07:05 → MCO 10:11 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 251 BOS 19:55 → MCO 23:10 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MCO 10:11	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:15	MCO 09:30	17%	5%	0.5%	85%
AA 2735 American Flight history →	BOS 09:00	MCO 12:16	17%	6%	0.7%	91%
AA 442 American	BOS 08:48	MCO 12:01	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 1977 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:40	MCO 15:01	28%	11%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:33	MCO 13:43	28%	10%	0.9%	80%
B6 1531 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:21	MCO 13:32	30%	10%	0.7%	79%
B6 51 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:10	MCO 15:22	33%	15%	1.0%	60%
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	33%	12%	1.6%	73%
DL 1513 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:16	MCO 23:32	39%	14%	1.8%	68%
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 17:00	40%	19%	1.3%	75%worse than usual
B6 551 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:19	MCO 20:37	51%	25%	1.9%	66%worse than usual
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:15	MCO 22:34	54%	25%	1.8%	53%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:55	MCO 23:10	58%	26%	2.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON