Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:00 pm at Boston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 20:30, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:30	MDT 22:10	31%	7%	0.4%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	7h 23m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:38 → ORD 19:59AA 1592	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 21:18 → MDT 00:22 +1AA 4640 · flown by Republic	6h 44m	67%	60%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → ATL 21:07DL 2464	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	5h 58m	63%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON