tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:53 am at Boston); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5619 at 16:25, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5619 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 16:25 MKE 18:17 28% 7% 0.2% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 8h 26m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 16:58 → MKE 18:16DL 4462 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 96% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 17:20 → BWI 19:10WN 1898 3h 40m Baltimore BWI 22:50 → MKE 23:55WN 1015 7h 35m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 16:45 → MDW 18:35WN 4106 3h 20m Chicago MDW 21:55 → MKE 22:50WN 2043 7h 05m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:27 → ORD 15:18AA 547 3h 57m Chicago ORD 19:15 → MKE 20:18AA 6273 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:01 → ORD 15:10AA 4386 · flown by Republic 2h 11m Chicago ORD 17:21 → MKE 18:23AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:54 → ORD 15:59AA 3711 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Chicago ORD 19:59 → MKE 21:01AA 4888 · flown by SkyWest 8h 07m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BOS 20:00 → BNA 21:45WN 2338 55m Nashville BNA 22:40 → MKE 00:21 +1WN 4781 5h 21m 47% 37%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:54 → IAH 19:08UA 1183 49m Houston IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 53% 36%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 18:50 → STL 20:55WN 754 50m St Louis STL 21:45 → MKE 23:00WN 3406 5h 10m 40% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON