Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Boston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YX 4676 at 20:14, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4676 Republic	BOS 20:14	MSN 22:19	28%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 17:38 → ORD 19:59AA 1592	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 +1AA 3728 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 14:00 → LGA 15:20DL 5730 · flown by Republic	2h 30m New York	LGA 17:50 → MSN 19:45DL 5853 · flown by Republic	6h 45m	98%	72%
American Details →	BOS 14:04 → LGA 15:30AA 4375 · flown by Republic	2h 26m New York	LGA 17:56 → MSN 19:39AA 4593 · flown by Republic	6h 35m	97%	71%
American Details →	BOS 15:03 → PHL 16:39AA 2882	3h 25m Philadelphia	PHL 20:04 → MSN 21:41AA 5512 · flown by PSA	7h 38m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	8h 28m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	6h 05m	84%	66%
United Details →	BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → MSN 22:22UA 1251	6h 22m	93%	64%
American Details →	BOS 16:46 → CLT 19:28AA 1573	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	7h 56m	95%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	58m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 20:59DL 3544 · flown by SkyWest	4h 44m	60%	45%
American Details →	BOS 16:06 → DFW 19:38AA 1595	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:36 → MSN 22:53AA 876	7h 47m	59%	38%
United Details →	BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800	49m Denver	DEN 20:34 → MSN 23:59UA 5214 · flown by SkyWest	8h 02m	52%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON