Today: DL 1103 at 11:50 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet today DL 1103 BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 1098 BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1103 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:50	MSP 14:02	21%	4%	0.1%	86%
DL 1127 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:52	MSP 17:05	23%	4%	0.1%	76%
DL 1098 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	MSP 20:21	31%	7%	0.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON