tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:30 am at Boston)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:55, is the safest bet: 42% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 23% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1398 Delta Flight history → BOS 11:20 MSY 13:56 31% 6% 0.5% 85%worse than usual
B6 401 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 11:35 MSY 14:08 46% 13% 0.9% 74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:35 → STL 07:25WN 752 1h 05m St Louis STL 08:30 → MSY 10:25WN 4105 5h 50m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → BOS 08:15 → ORD 10:12UA 1834 3h 53m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 9h 34m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 05:45 → BWI 07:20WN 727 55m Baltimore BWI 08:15 → MSY 10:13WN 4349 5h 28m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 17m Dulles IAD 08:40 → MSY 10:24UA 2253 5h 39m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 00m New York JFK 08:30 → MSY 10:51DL 1368 5h 46m 95% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 16:45 → MDW 18:35WN 4106 3h 40m Chicago MDW 22:15 → MSY 00:36 +1WN 1508 8h 51m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:19 → ORD 09:17UA 2631 1h 43m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MSY 13:31UA 1532 7h 12m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → BOS 12:35 → IAD 14:43UA 3413 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Dulles IAD 18:09 → MSY 20:04UA 251 8h 29m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 09:18 → DCA 10:59AA 1605 46m Washington DCA 11:45 → MSY 13:27AA 3175 5h 09m 45% 33%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:52 → DFW 21:20AA 1577 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:06 → MSY 23:41AA 1455 6h 49m 36% 22%
FrontierDetails → BOS 11:59 → ATL 14:53F9 3511 51m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → MSY 16:27F9 1371 5h 28m 23% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON