Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:27 am at Boston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LaGuardia, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Martha's Vineyard on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Martha's Vineyard on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 10:00 → LGA 11:15DL 5744 · flown by Republic	2h 30m New York	LGA 13:45 → MVY 14:59DL 5822 · flown by Republic	4h 59m	99%	79%
American Details →	BOS 10:51 → DCA 12:33AA 1556	2h 51m Washington	DCA 15:24 → MVY 17:00AA 4572 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	100%	77%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 11:20 → JFK 12:43B6 1117	2h 16m New York	JFK 14:59 → MVY 16:10B6 1538	4h 50m	93%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	BOS 12:45 → JFK 14:00B6 717	59m New York	JFK 14:59 → MVY 16:10B6 1538	3h 25m	63%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON