Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3324 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 3324 BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 811 BOS 17:10 → ORD 19:15 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3324 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	ORD 07:04	6%	2%	1.2%	92%
UA 1414 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	ORD 07:58	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	BOS 08:15	ORD 10:12	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2631 United Flight history →	BOS 07:19	ORD 09:17	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	BOS 09:50	ORD 11:43	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	ORD 09:26	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1097 United	BOS 08:04	ORD 09:54	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1239 American Flight history →	BOS 08:58	ORD 11:00	11%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 503 United Flight history →	BOS 10:35	ORD 12:28	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3711 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 13:54	ORD 15:59	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 4386 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:01	ORD 15:10	13%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 1509 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	ORD 09:01	13%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 3022 American Flight history →	BOS 10:30	ORD 12:30	16%	5%	1.0%	91%
UA 1732 United Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ORD 14:23	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
B6 111 JetBlue	BOS 06:39	ORD 08:31	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2600 American	BOS 10:26	ORD 12:17	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:25	ORD 14:19	19%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 1610 American Flight history →	BOS 11:59	ORD 13:59	19%	4%	1.0%	91%worse than usual
B6 311 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:10	ORD 10:06	22%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 547 American Flight history →	BOS 13:27	ORD 15:18	22%	4%	0.8%	74%
AA 3067 American	BOS 12:09	ORD 14:00	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:15	ORD 18:19	23%	5%	0.7%	61%
DL 2804 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:45	ORD 22:39	23%	6%	0.7%	47%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	BOS 15:13	ORD 17:05	25%	6%	0.6%	65%
UA 2229 United Flight history →	BOS 20:15	ORD 22:15	26%	7%	0.6%	57%
AA 1563 American Flight history →	BOS 15:19	ORD 17:29	26%	5%	0.9%	52%
UA 1015 United Flight history →	BOS 18:43	ORD 20:40	27%	8%	0.6%	51%
UA 2040 United Flight history →	BOS 17:00	ORD 19:00	30%	6%	0.6%	55%
AA 2578 American	BOS 15:39	ORD 17:34	31%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1554 American Flight history →	BOS 18:30	ORD 20:59	33%	8%	0.9%	61%
AA 1592 American Flight history →	BOS 17:38	ORD 19:59	33%	9%	0.9%	38%
B6 811 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	ORD 19:15	44%	16%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON