Today: DL 5809 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet today DL 5809 BOS 09:20 → ORF 11:11 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1813 BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5809 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:20	ORF 11:11	13%	4%	0.5%	92%
YX 5794 Republic	BOS 09:08	ORF 11:04	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 1813 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:48	ORF 18:44	28%	9%	0.6%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON