Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1245 at 09:20, 28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1245 BOS 09:20 → PBI 12:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 2321 BOS 15:39 → PBI 18:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1245 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:20	PBI 12:39	28%	12%	5.7%	78%
B6 21 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:02	PBI 12:18	31%	12%	5.5%	73%
B6 2421 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:35	PBI 00:53	35%	16%	0.7%	60%
B6 2321 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:39	PBI 18:59	44%	16%	0.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON