Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:04 pm at Boston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:52, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 1319 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 16:54	PDX 20:15	37%	11%	0.5%	71%
B6 95 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:19	PDX 22:31	40%	13%	0.6%	70%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BOS 16:15 → SFO 19:49UA 512	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	11h 35m	97%	75%
United Details →	BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738	10h 17m	87%	72%
Delta Details →	BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 23m	89%	72%
United Details →	BOS 14:09 → SFO 17:06UA 1367	3h 44m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	11h 39m	95%	72%
United Details →	BOS 14:15 → IAD 15:57UA 721	1h 43m Dulles	IAD 17:40 → PDX 20:19UA 780	9h 04m	89%	70%
American Details →	BOS 15:19 → ORD 17:29AA 1563	3h 58m Chicago	ORD 21:27 → PDX 00:12 +1AA 2977	11h 53m	91%	68%
United Details →	BOS 15:10 → DEN 17:55UA 2297	3h 35m Denver	DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770	11h 03m	97%	68%
Southwest Details →	BOS 16:45 → MDW 18:35WN 4106	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → PDX 23:55WN 2852	10h 10m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040	55m Chicago	ORD 19:55 → PDX 22:30UA 2738	8h 30m	56%	46%
American Details →	BOS 18:18 → DFW 21:49AA 1401	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:54 → PDX 00:55 +1AA 2620	9h 37m	55%	36%
Alaska Details →	BOS 17:56 → SEA 21:26AS 304	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457	8h 34m	44%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON