tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Boston); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 514 at 17:50 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–50%.

Safest bet today DL 514 BOS 17:50 → PHX 20:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 1303 BOS 19:42 → PHX 22:15 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.
DL 514 Delta Flight history → BOS 17:50 PHX 20:28 35% 10% 0.3% 70%
AA 3313 American Flight history → BOS 17:07 PHX 19:50 35% 9% 0.4% 67%
AA 1999 American BOS 17:06 PHX 19:59 35% 9% 0.4% no record
B6 1303 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 19:42 PHX 22:15 50% 12% 0.4% 73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → BOS 14:51 → CMH 16:34AA 4692 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Columbus CMH 18:05 → PHX 19:35AA 1399 7h 44m 93% 70%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 8h 14m 91% 70%
UnitedDetails → BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800 1h 19m Denver DEN 21:04 → PHX 22:12UA 1194 8h 15m 82% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON