Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5678 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 5678 BOS 08:15 → PIT 10:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2185 BOS 17:53 → PIT 19:48 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:15	PIT 10:19	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:45	PIT 13:41	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
B6 1585 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:31	PIT 08:32	14%	6%	0.4%	89%
B6 1285 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:20	PIT 08:10	16%	6%	0.5%	85%
DL 5679 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:10	PIT 22:13	18%	5%	0.6%	67%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:15	PIT 18:23	20%	4%	0.6%	81%
B6 385 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:43	PIT 12:45	21%	5%	0.6%	86%
B6 1785 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:47	PIT 17:52	35%	8%	0.6%	71%
B6 2185 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:53	PIT 19:48	38%	10%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON