Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2066 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2066 BOS 06:20 → RDU 08:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2783 BOS 19:06 → RDU 21:19 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2066 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	RDU 08:28	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
B6 1883 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:30	RDU 08:33	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2118 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:00	RDU 12:04	14%	4%	0.6%	89%
B6 2083 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:03	RDU 10:14	15%	6%	0.5%	85%
DL 2283 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:03	RDU 15:09	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
F9 3057 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 08:41	RDU 10:49	22%	9%	0.6%	73%
DL 2782 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	RDU 19:37	27%	10%	0.7%	75%
DL 817 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:05	RDU 22:15	31%	10%	0.7%	55%
B6 2283 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:19	RDU 13:20	34%	9%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
B6 2383 JetBlue	BOS 14:17	RDU 16:29	39%	16%	0.7%	no record
B6 2783 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:06	RDU 21:19	41%	21%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON