Today: DL 5676 at 21:30 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–45%.

Safest bet today DL 5676 BOS 21:30 → RIC 23:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest B6 381 BOS 20:04 → RIC 22:07 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5676 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:30	RIC 23:32	19%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:10	RIC 18:17	23%	7%	0.2%	79%
B6 781 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:40	RIC 17:29	38%	12%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
B6 381 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:04	RIC 22:07	45%	14%	0.6%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON