Today: DL 2474 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–49%.

Safest bet today DL 2474 BOS 07:30 → RSW 11:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 2065 BOS 16:22 → RSW 19:53 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2474 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	RSW 11:02	14%	3%	0.4%	87%
B6 165 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	RSW 09:27	14%	4%	0.6%	76%
B6 2065 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:22	RSW 19:53	49%	18%	0.8%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	52m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406	5h 08m	83%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON