tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:03 am at Boston); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:00 → PHX 15:45AA 1057 3h 53m Phoenix PHX 19:38 → SAT 23:58AA 3832 · flown by Envoy 11h 58m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → BOS 12:35 → IAD 14:43UA 3413 · flown by Republic 3h 02m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 8h 47m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:10 → DEN 17:55UA 2297 2h 44m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 9h 45m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → BOS 12:22 → DEN 14:53UA 414 2h 46m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 9h 32m 98% 71%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 11:35 → DEN 14:05WN 4208 2h 38m Denver DEN 16:43 → SAT 19:59WN 4678 9h 24m 100% 69%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 16:45 → MDW 18:35WN 4106 2h 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 3229 8h 25m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → BOS 14:52 → MSP 17:05DL 1127 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773 7h 34m 87% 65%
AmericanDetails → BOS 14:21 → MIA 17:58AA 2247 1h 36m Miami MIA 19:34 → SAT 21:38AA 1468 8h 17m 92% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BOS 17:50 → DAL 21:00WN 737 59m Dallas DAL 21:59 → SAT 23:13WN 1458 6h 23m 56% 41%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 18:45 → MDW 20:35WN 3911 50m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 3229 6h 25m 54% 37%
SouthwestDetails → BOS 18:50 → STL 20:55WN 754 50m St Louis STL 21:45 → SAT 00:04 +1WN 2858 6h 14m 40% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON