Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 332 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 332 BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 306 BOS 18:35 → SEA 21:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 332 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:29	SEA 14:50	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 384 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:53	SEA 11:16	16%	5%	0.5%	77%
DL 324 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 23:02	23%	9%	0.7%	67%
DL 2889 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:40	SEA 19:11	24%	7%	0.6%	71%
AS 338 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:00	SEA 12:23	25%	4%	0.6%	80%
AS 459 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 07:03	SEA 10:26	25%	4%	0.6%	75%
B6 397 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:17	SEA 22:40	28%	12%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 215 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:01	SEA 12:02	29%	4%	0.6%	64%
AS 1506 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 15:26	SEA 18:45	30%	6%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
B6 197 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:29	SEA 22:54	31%	13%	0.6%	58%
AS 304 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 17:56	SEA 21:26	33%	8%	0.6%	66%
AS 1337 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 19:44	SEA 23:07	33%	8%	0.6%	53%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 18:35	SEA 21:52	35%	8%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 50m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 04m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 10m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON