Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2441 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2441 BOS 06:00 → SFO 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 413 BOS 20:55 → SFO 00:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2441 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	SFO 09:27	11%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:20	SFO 10:51	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 2317 United	BOS 07:41	SFO 11:05	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 323 United Flight history →	BOS 07:28	SFO 10:55	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 726 United	BOS 09:21	SFO 12:54	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:35	SFO 10:05	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 633 JetBlue	BOS 06:51	SFO 10:14	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:11	SFO 13:45	16%	3%	0.6%	51%
UA 2002 United Flight history →	BOS 09:07	SFO 12:34	16%	5%	0.7%	56%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:35	SFO 15:02	16%	4%	0.7%	80%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	BOS 13:55	SFO 17:30	20%	6%	0.6%	84%
B6 1833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:50	SFO 13:23	21%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 2919 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:33	22%	8%	0.7%	66%
B6 833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:04	SFO 13:29	24%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 512 United Flight history →	BOS 16:15	SFO 19:49	24%	10%	0.7%	69%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 18:10	SFO 21:47	25%	10%	0.7%	57%
UA 2107 United Flight history →	BOS 20:20	SFO 23:57	26%	11%	0.7%	58%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:05	SFO 20:51	27%	9%	0.6%	69%
B6 233 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:50	SFO 19:22	31%	11%	0.7%	74%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:00	SFO 20:34	32%	14%	0.7%	59%
B6 1633 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:05	SFO 22:46	33%	14%	0.7%	42%
B6 413 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:55	SFO 00:30	33%	17%	0.7%	31%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:00 → SFO 12:19DL 669	9h 14m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 37m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON