Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–50%.

Safest bet that day DL 2706 BOS 07:00 → TPA 10:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 391 BOS 16:19 → TPA 19:38 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	TPA 10:18	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
B6 891 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:25	TPA 09:40	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
B6 691 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:02	TPA 10:32	16%	7%	0.7%	84%
B6 791 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:28	TPA 14:07	28%	8%	0.7%	80%
DL 2234 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:30	TPA 22:05	28%	15%	1.2%	65%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:05	TPA 19:38	33%	15%	1.2%	73%
B6 591 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 21:03	TPA 00:22	44%	19%	1.0%	63%
B6 391 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:19	TPA 19:38	50%	21%	1.2%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON