Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:17 am at Boston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4516 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:10	TVC 12:41	16%	4%	0.3%	90%
DL 5821 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:06	TVC 16:39	21%	5%	0.6%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	96%	81%
United Details →	BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	6h 54m	93%	80%
United Details →	BOS 08:15 → ORD 10:12UA 1834	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → TVC 16:31UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest	8h 16m	100%	79%
United Details →	BOS 09:50 → ORD 11:43UA 1349	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 15:35 → TVC 17:57UA 5640 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	99%	78%
United Details →	BOS 07:19 → ORD 09:17UA 2631	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → TVC 15:10UA 6033 · flown by SkyWest	7h 51m	100%	77%
American Details →	BOS 08:10 → CLT 10:34AA 1348	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA	7h 21m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 53m	95%	76%
United Details →	BOS 08:00 → EWR 09:23UA 570	1h 13m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	5h 00m	92%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	51m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → TVC 13:27DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	4h 12m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON