Today: DL 2054 at 19:24 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–42%.

Safest bet today DL 2054 BUF 19:24 → ATL 21:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 1407 BUF 14:48 → ATL 17:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2054 Delta Flight history →	BUF 19:24	ATL 21:44	24%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	BUF 17:12	ATL 19:23	26%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2050 Delta Flight history →	BUF 19:01	ATL 21:15	26%	3%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
F9 1407 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 14:48	ATL 17:08	42%	14%	1.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON