Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4788 at 07:15, 9%.

Safest bet today AA 4788 BUF 07:15 → BOS 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 916 BUF 14:26 → BOS 16:07 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 07:15	BOS 08:51	9%	4%	0.7%	93%
B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 07:00	BOS 08:22	12%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 4440 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 16:15	BOS 17:57	14%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 16:36	BOS 18:10	22%	8%	0.7%	67%
YX 4782 Republic	BUF 10:35	BOS 12:19	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 18:41	BOS 20:21	25%	16%	0.8%	56%
YX 5864 Republic	BUF 13:15	BOS 14:58	33%	19%	0.8%	no record
B6 2116 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 10:36	BOS 11:58	35%	11%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:41	BOS 13:16	35%	9%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
B6 916 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 14:26	BOS 16:07	43%	24%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON