Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 823 BUF 06:02 → BWI 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 958 BUF 17:55 → BWI 19:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 823 Southwest	BUF 06:02	BWI 07:25	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 824 Southwest	BUF 09:42	BWI 11:05	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 756 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 06:05	BWI 07:20	7%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 758 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 11:00	BWI 12:15	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 826 Southwest	BUF 12:35	BWI 13:58	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 757 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 08:45	BWI 09:55	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 827 Southwest	BUF 14:50	BWI 16:13	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4734 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 14:50	BWI 16:05	12%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 17:55	BWI 19:15	13%	4%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON