Today: AA 1203 at 11:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet today AA 1203 BUF 11:42 → CLT 13:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1614 BUF 19:35 → CLT 21:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1203 American Flight history →	BUF 11:42	CLT 13:40	13%	4%	0.3%	79%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	BUF 13:47	CLT 15:49	15%	5%	0.3%	76%
AA 2442 American Flight history →	BUF 16:00	CLT 17:54	24%	7%	0.4%	79%
AA 1486 American Flight history →	BUF 19:57	CLT 21:56	28%	6%	1.9%	68%
AA 1614 American Flight history →	BUF 19:35	CLT 21:36	30%	6%	1.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON