Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:38 am at Buffalo); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 19:55, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3413 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 16:40	DEN 18:15	25%	5%	0.1%	19%
WN 839 Southwest	BUF 16:50	DEN 18:25	25%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUF 10:57 → ORD 11:57UA 705	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 34m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	BUF 14:50 → BWI 16:05WN 4734	3h 55m Baltimore	BWI 20:00 → DEN 22:00WN 4214	9h 10m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	9h 11m	99%	81%
United Details →	BUF 10:34 → IAD 11:50UA 3430 · flown by Republic	2h 45m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	7h 55m	98%	81%
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 22:15 → DEN 00:06 +1UA 767	8h 02m	93%	80%
American Details →	BUF 16:45 → ORD 18:00AA 4913 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → DEN 23:02AA 2295	8h 17m	96%	77%
American Details →	BUF 10:07 → ORD 11:09AA 4413 · flown by Republic	53m Chicago	ORD 12:02 → DEN 13:57AA 1277	5h 50m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	BUF 19:36 → MSP 20:52DL 1751	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	5h 51m	89%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUF 19:55 → MDW 20:35WN 768	50m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → DEN 23:10WN 2770	5h 15m	70%	56%
Southwest Details →	BUF 12:40 → MCO 15:15WN 762	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 16:20 → DEN 18:45WN 2632	8h 05m	74%	43%
American Details →	BUF 16:00 → CLT 17:54AA 2442	46m Charlotte	CLT 18:40 → DEN 20:32AA 1284	6h 32m	60%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON