Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 882 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 882 BUF 07:01 → DFW 09:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1615 BUF 16:46 → DFW 19:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 882 American Flight history →	BUF 07:01	DFW 09:25	11%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 1724 American Flight history →	BUF 16:40	DFW 19:14	28%	7%	1.2%	60%
AA 1615 American Flight history →	BUF 16:46	DFW 19:10	28%	6%	1.2%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	4h 55m	89%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON