Today: 9E 5397 at 19:44 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–37%.

Safest bet today 9E 5397 BUF 19:44 → DTW 21:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3637 BUF 19:50 → DTW 21:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


9E 5397 Endeavor	BUF 19:44	DTW 21:00	20%	9%	0.2%	no record
OO 3870 SkyWest	BUF 15:52	DTW 17:08	31%	9%	0.3%	no record
DL 3642 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 15:54	DTW 17:10	31%	9%	0.3%	73%
DL 3637 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 19:50	DTW 21:11	37%	12%	0.4%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON