Today: UA 3716 at 19:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–45%.

Safest bet today UA 3716 BUF 19:00 → EWR 20:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest G7 4405 BUF 19:43 → EWR 21:10 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3716 United flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 19:00	EWR 20:31	17%	6%	1.0%	78%
G7 4403 GoJet	BUF 16:02	EWR 17:28	38%	11%	1.1%	no record
G7 4405 GoJet	BUF 19:43	EWR 21:10	45%	15%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON