Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:15 pm at Buffalo); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4170 at 19:58, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4170 GoJet	BUF 19:58	IAD 21:16	25%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 19:01 → ATL 21:15DL 2050	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	5h 40m	91%	68%
United Details →	BUF 19:00 → EWR 20:31UA 3716 · flown by Republic	1h 19m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 19m	87%	38%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUF 19:58 → CLT 21:56AA 1486	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	4h 12m	55%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON