Today: B6 2001 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–35%.

Safest bet today B6 2001 BUF 06:40 → JFK 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 201 BUF 19:21 → JFK 20:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 2001 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:40	JFK 08:05	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
B6 1901 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 12:11	JFK 13:44	23%	11%	0.8%	80%
B6 2901 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 15:32	JFK 17:00	28%	14%	0.8%	78%
B6 201 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 19:21	JFK 20:50	35%	15%	0.8%	68%
DL 5426 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 10:00	JFK 11:24	10%	2%	2.7%	90%
DL 5284 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 07:00	JFK 08:30	14%	5%	3.9%	86%
DL 5296 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 15:50	JFK 17:30	20%	7%	11.1%	80%
DL 5250 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 20:09	JFK 21:49	22%	11%	9.5%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON