tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:31 am at Buffalo)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 491 JetBlue Flight history → BUF 20:20 LAX 22:38 30% 14% 0.7% 61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154 1h 35m Chicago MDW 09:50 → LAX 12:08WN 1908 7h 33m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 10:34 → IAD 11:50UA 3430 · flown by Republic 3h 25m Dulles IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684 10h 13m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BUF 07:00 → ORD 08:05UA 5820 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:46 → LAX 13:18UA 2170 9h 18m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 1h 40m Philadelphia PHL 08:26 → LAX 11:14AA 824 8h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 2h 51m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 8h 57m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:15 → IAD 07:34UA 3668 · flown by Republic 1h 36m Dulles IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868 8h 24m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 8h 40m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:03 → LAX 00:50 +1DL 8783 10h 38m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 26m 64% 48%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 15:32 → JFK 17:00B6 2901 50m New York JFK 17:50 → LAX 21:02B6 823 8h 30m 64% 41%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 19:21 → JFK 20:50B6 201 50m New York JFK 21:40 → LAX 00:51 +1B6 923 8h 30m 59% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON