Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 834 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 834 BUF 05:30 → MCO 08:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1691 BUF 19:57 → MCO 22:49 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 834 Southwest	BUF 05:30	MCO 08:14	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 908 Southwest	BUF 11:05	MCO 13:50	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 85 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 08:42	MCO 11:22	15%	4%	1.2%	85%
B6 1085 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 09:59	MCO 12:38	18%	6%	1.2%	68%
WN 762 Southwest Flight history →	BUF 12:40	MCO 15:15	22%	5%	0.7%	81%
F9 1691 Frontier Flight history →	BUF 19:57	MCO 22:49	31%	12%	2.3%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON