Today: AA 4413 at 10:07 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet today AA 4413 BUF 10:07 → ORD 11:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4913 BUF 16:45 → ORD 18:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 10:07	ORD 11:09	5%	2%	0.1%	94%
YX 4780 Republic	BUF 11:23	ORD 12:25	7%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 2112 American Flight history →	BUF 08:08	ORD 09:10	7%	3%	0.2%	84%
AA 1195 American Flight history →	BUF 07:56	ORD 08:50	8%	3%	0.2%	88%
UA 705 United Flight history →	BUF 10:57	ORD 11:57	10%	3%	0.1%	89%
UA 1651 United	BUF 10:41	ORD 11:33	11%	3%	0.1%	no record
OO 4741 SkyWest	BUF 13:49	ORD 14:42	20%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 2747 United Flight history →	BUF 18:04	ORD 19:03	22%	7%	0.2%	63%
AA 2921 American	BUF 17:53	ORD 18:55	23%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUF 16:45	ORD 18:00	24%	7%	0.4%	58%
UA 4381 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	BUF 13:54	ORD 14:55	27%	16%	2.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON