Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:22 pm at Buffalo); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, PT 5870 at 19:33, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


PT 5870 Piedmont	BUF 19:33	PHL 21:07	26%	7%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 19:24 → ATL 21:44DL 2054	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 35m	89%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BUF 19:35 → CLT 21:36AA 1614	50m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → PHL 00:10 +1AA 1827	4h 35m	52%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON