tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Buffalo); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 14:50, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 14:50 → BWI 16:05WN 4734 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 17:05 → SJU 21:15WN 1103 6h 25m 89% 65%
AmericanDetails → BUF 13:47 → CLT 15:49AA 1616 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 19:08 → SJU 22:59AA 2830 9h 12m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:46 → DFW 19:10AA 1615 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:47 → SJU 04:39 +1AA 514 11h 53m 98% 64%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:50 → JFK 17:31DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m New York JFK 19:29 → SJU 23:53DL 1859 8h 03m 94% 63%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJU 20:45DL 1791 8h 29m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → BUF 14:44 → PHL 16:14AA 6041 · flown by Piedmont 2h 36m Philadelphia PHL 18:50 → SJU 22:57AA 3065 8h 13m 94% 57%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 17:55 → BWI 19:15WN 958 55m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → SJU 00:20 +1WN 1104 6h 25m 85% 53%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 12:10 → JFK 13:44B6 1901 1h 59m New York JFK 15:43 → SJU 19:39B6 803 7h 29m 92% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BUF 17:55 → BWI 19:15WN 958 46m Baltimore BWI 20:01 → SJU 00:16 +1WN 1164 6h 21m 73% 45%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 12:40 → MCO 15:15WN 762 1h 10m Orlando MCO 16:25 → SJU 19:25WN 2705 6h 45m 74% 44%
JetBlueDetails → BUF 15:32 → JFK 17:00B6 2901 1h 29m New York JFK 18:29 → SJU 22:45B6 2903 7h 13m 72% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON