tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:11 pm at Buffalo); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1915 at 20:45, 24%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1915 Southwest BUF 20:45 TPA 23:44 24% 7% 0.5% no record
WN 845 Southwest BUF 16:30 TPA 19:29 26% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUF 14:50 → BWI 16:05WN 4734 3h 05m Baltimore BWI 19:10 → TPA 21:55WN 1123 7h 05m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 17:55 → BWI 19:15WN 958 2h 05m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578 6h 00m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → BUF 15:54 → DTW 17:10DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 6h 41m 93% 67%
SouthwestDetails → BUF 16:10 → MDW 16:50WN 766 3h 20m Chicago MDW 20:10 → TPA 23:50WN 2910 7h 40m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 1h 45m Chicago ORD 16:40 → TPA 20:25UA 1393 6h 31m 84% 61%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 7h 17m 99% 60%
AmericanDetails → BUF 13:47 → CLT 15:49AA 1616 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 18:50 → TPA 20:42AA 3051 6h 55m 99% 59%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594 6h 41m 99% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUF 16:00 → CLT 17:54AA 2442 56m Charlotte CLT 18:50 → TPA 20:42AA 3051 4h 42m 70% 42%
AmericanDetails → BUF 19:57 → CLT 21:56AA 1486 51m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:39 +1AA 1773 4h 42m 59% 38%
DeltaDetails → BUF 19:01 → ATL 21:15DL 2050 46m Atlanta ATL 22:01 → TPA 23:33DL 8844 4h 32m 56% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON