tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 08:35, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4447 Southwest BUR 07:00 BNA 12:57 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3140 Southwest Flight history → BUR 13:45 BNA 19:45 25% 6% 0.7% 35%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55WN 853 3h 10m Sacramento SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:10 +1WN 3759 8h 35m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 09:20 → RNO 10:40WN 339 2h 10m Reno RNO 12:50 → BNA 18:56WN 554 7h 36m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 8h 30m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 9h 13m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 794 3h 15m Las Vegas LAS 23:25 → BNA 05:00 +1WN 2191 8h 00m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 3h 10m Chicago MDW 16:30 → BNA 18:01WN 2838 8h 36m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 2h 21m Denver DEN 12:51 → BNA 16:25WN 2286 7h 15m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 16:53 → SEA 19:28AS 537 3h 47m Seattle SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382 10h 47m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BUR 12:50 → LAS 14:05WN 3124 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:00 → BNA 20:45WN 4395 5h 55m 69% 48%
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 57m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → BNA 22:46UA 373 7h 01m 59% 42%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:14 → BNA 21:11AA 3169 6h 14m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON