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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 10m Chicago MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020 7h 00m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340 9h 28m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 7h 55m 87% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55WN 853 1h 45m Sacramento SMF 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3622 8h 00m 94% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:45 → BWI 17:15WN 4434 7h 05m 97% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 17:55 → SJC 19:05WN 840 2h 35m San Jose SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621 8h 50m 96% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771 1h 25m Austin AUS 17:25 → BWI 21:40WN 3385 7h 40m 95% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 12:50 → LAS 14:05WN 3124 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 16:30 → BWI 00:10 +1WN 2206 8h 20m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 50m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340 7h 48m 63% 55%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251 7h 46m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON