Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 857 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 857 BUR 07:05 → DEN 10:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 138 BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 857 Southwest	BUR 07:05	DEN 10:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 778 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:10	DEN 10:30	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1191 United Flight history →	BUR 09:08	DEN 12:35	8%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 1899 United	BUR 09:03	DEN 12:41	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest	BUR 09:16	DEN 12:32	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 351 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:35	DEN 11:50	9%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2187 United Flight history →	BUR 12:48	DEN 16:16	14%	7%	0.6%	80%
WN 4213 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:20	DEN 16:45	14%	4%	0.6%	74%
WN 138 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:45	DEN 18:10	17%	5%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON