tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 40m Chicago MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 8h 10m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:30 → SMF 08:55WN 845 2h 05m Sacramento SMF 11:00 → HOU 16:45WN 3782 7h 15m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:20 → DEN 16:45WN 4213 1h 55m Denver DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606 6h 55m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:00 → PHX 08:40WN 813 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:25 → HOU 15:05WN 3067 6h 05m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921 3h 40m Dallas DAL 20:30 → HOU 21:40WN 57 7h 55m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140 3h 00m Nashville BNA 22:45 → HOU 00:50 +1WN 4474 9h 05m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:55 → PHX 13:30WN 816 3h 55m Phoenix PHX 17:25 → HOU 22:05WN 4203 8h 10m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 3090 2h 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:10 → HOU 20:20WN 2243 7h 15m 100% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON