tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 13:45, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 18:54 → IAH 00:59 +1UA 1702 9h 14m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 8h 53m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 7h 15m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 9h 25m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 00m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 8h 02m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386 2h 07m San Francisco SFO 14:28 → IAH 20:40UA 2002 7h 47m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 18m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BUR 07:03 → SEA 09:44AS 444 1h 08m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 8h 13m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON