Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:53 pm at Burbank); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 20:22, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	1h 44m San Francisco	SFO 23:34 → IND 07:10 +1UA 1726	7h 48m	75%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IND 06:38 +1UA 2477	7h 16m	61%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON