Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3870 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3870 BUR 07:15 → LAS 08:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4108 BUR 13:15 → LAS 14:33 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3870 Southwest	BUR 07:15	LAS 08:27	6%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 785 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:15	LAS 08:30	7%	1%	1.0%	100%
WN 1294 Southwest	BUR 08:31	LAS 09:43	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 786 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	LAS 09:30	11%	2%	1.0%	100%worse than usual
WN 4724 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 09:40	LAS 10:50	12%	2%	1.0%	98%
WN 3090 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:05	LAS 12:15	17%	3%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
WN 4474 Southwest	BUR 11:26	LAS 12:38	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 794 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:00	LAS 20:10	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
WN 799 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:55	LAS 22:05	19%	8%	0.9%	59%
WN 3124 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 12:50	LAS 14:05	21%	4%	0.9%	88%
WN 792 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 17:20	LAS 18:30	22%	7%	0.9%	61%
WN 790 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:00	LAS 15:10	22%	5%	0.9%	75%
WN 2160 Southwest	BUR 12:16	LAS 13:28	22%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4517 Southwest	BUR 14:00	LAS 15:12	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 4370 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:10	LAS 19:20	24%	7%	0.9%	65%
WN 410 Southwest	BUR 13:10	LAS 14:22	24%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 791 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:40	LAS 16:50	26%	5%	0.9%	81%
F9 1196 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 18:00	LAS 19:21	35%	13%	2.7%	68%
F9 4108 Frontier Flight history →	BUR 13:15	LAS 14:33	40%	11%	2.7%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON