Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 08:35, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 884 Southwest	BUR 08:10	MDW 14:08	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3156 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:25	MDW 13:20	10%	2%	0.7%	98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 17:55 → SJC 19:05WN 840	3h 50m San Jose	SJC 22:55 → MDW 05:00 +1WN 3886	9h 05m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:45 → SMF 21:05WN 854	2h 45m Sacramento	SMF 23:50 → MDW 05:45 +1WN 3802	8h 00m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BUR 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 794	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 25m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	BUR 20:10 → OAK 21:25WN 808	2h 30m Oakland	OAK 23:55 → MDW 06:00 +1WN 3059	7h 50m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778	2h 30m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	7h 10m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:05 → SMF 10:30WN 2638	1h 30m Sacramento	SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55WN 3769	6h 50m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:20 → SJC 08:35WN 834	1h 30m San Jose	SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357	6h 50m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	6h 30m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:00 → LAS 15:10WN 790	55m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	5h 45m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON