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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 879 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 879 BUR 07:00 → OAK 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 807 BUR 18:35 → OAK 19:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 879 Southwest BUR 07:00 OAK 08:23 5% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 4919 Southwest Flight history → BUR 07:05 OAK 08:25 5% 1% 1.2% 98%
WN 1031 Southwest BUR 09:18 OAK 10:41 8% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 802 Southwest Flight history → BUR 09:00 OAK 10:15 8% 2% 1.2% 96%
WN 883 Southwest BUR 11:13 OAK 12:36 9% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 803 Southwest Flight history → BUR 11:35 OAK 12:50 12% 3% 1.0% 94%
WN 3537 Southwest BUR 13:21 OAK 14:44 15% 5% 1.0% no record
WN 806 Southwest Flight history → BUR 17:00 OAK 18:15 16% 6% 0.9% 68%
WN 808 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:10 OAK 21:25 18% 6% 0.9% 62%
WN 805 Southwest Flight history → BUR 15:05 OAK 16:20 18% 5% 0.9% 68%
WN 804 Southwest Flight history → BUR 13:05 OAK 14:20 18% 4% 1.0% 73%
WN 807 Southwest Flight history → BUR 18:35 OAK 19:50 18% 5% 0.9% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON