Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 562 BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 293 BUR 14:09 → PDX 16:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 562 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:09	PDX 09:27	8%	1%	0.6%	96%
AS 1322 Alaska	BUR 10:27	PDX 12:47	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 1383 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 14:09	PDX 16:26	12%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 649 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:10	PDX 20:25	14%	5%	0.8%	86%
AS 293 Alaska	BUR 14:09	PDX 16:28	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON