Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:23 am at Burbank)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3224 at 08:20, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3224 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 08:20	RDM 10:46	9%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	99%	91%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:45 → RDM 11:47AS 3073 · flown by SkyWest	4h 38m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:10 → PDX 20:25AS 649	1h 30m Portland	PDX 21:55 → RDM 22:45AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	4h 35m	93%	83%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:55 → SEA 19:28AS 537	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon	7h 04m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	BUR 14:09 → PDX 16:26AS 1383	1h 54m Portland	PDX 18:20 → RDM 19:09AS 2172 · flown by Horizon	5h 00m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720	3h 27m Seattle	SEA 16:19 → RDM 17:31AS 3435 · flown by SkyWest	7h 21m	100%	77%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	1h 58m San Francisco	SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153	5h 10m	96%	73%
American Details →	BUR 16:42 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Phoenix	PHX 20:26 → RDM 22:59AA 3597 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	84%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 16:22 → RDM 17:58UA 2418	4h 13m	72%	50%
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 21:18 → RDM 22:59UA 1809	4h 17m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON